Insight Analysis: UK Broadband Net Access Forecasts
Broadband internet growth in the UK is set to be double that of the United States for at least the next three years, according to forecasts by Net Profit. Growth is expected to be 527% this year, dropping back to 145% next year and gradually slowing from that point on.
Broadband Net access can take a number of different forms – cable modem, DSL (digital subscriber line), fixed wireless services and satellite. In the UK, DSL and cable will be equally popular next year – with around 750,000 homes taking each – before DSL takes the lead over cable to reach 5.1 million homes by 2005. Cable is predicted by Net Profit to reach 2.3 million homes by 2005.
| UK Households with Broadband Access (m) | ||||||
| 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | |
| Cable | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
| DSL | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 5.1 |
| Fixed Wireless | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Satellite | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Total | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 5.7 | 8.0 |
| % of all households | 0.5 | 2.9 | 7.0 | 14.1 | 23.6 | 33.4 |
| Source: Net Profit/MediaTel Insight | ||||||
In the US cable will lead the way until around midway through 2003, after which DSL will take the lead. Cable access is already well established in the States, with 3.9 million homes connected via a cable modem by last year; in the UK there were just 100,000 cable internet users last year, rising to 300,000 this year.
| US Households with Broadband Access (m) | ||||||
| 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | |
| Cable modem | 3.9 | 8.1 | 11.2 | 14.3 | 16.6 | 24.3 |
| DSL | 2.5 | 5.9 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 20.3 | 27.7 |
| Fixed wireless | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 4.3 | 6.1 |
| Satellite | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Total | 6.5 | 14.4 | 22.4 | 30.4 | 42.5 | 60.0 |
| % of all households | 6.2 | 13.7 | 21.4 | 29.0 | 40.6 | 57.3 |
| Source: Net Profit / MediaTel Insight | ||||||
In terms of overall broadband access, the US market is obviously much larger than the UK’s, with 14.4 million homes there this year, versus just 700,000 over here. By 2005, there will be 60 million broadband connected homes in the US and 8 million in the UK, according to the forecasts.
The significance of broadband net access is its speed. The more people have fast, constant access to the web, the more likely ‘convergence’ is to emerge. Convergence, at its most basic, is the merging of the internet and television into one screen-based information and entertainment platform. Add in to the bargain shopping, banking, gaming and a host of other interactive elements and you get an idea of what all the fuss is about.
What is perhaps more significant than sheer numbers of homes in a UK versus US comparison, is the penetration of broadband in each country; that is, the percentage of homes that have access to a high-speed broadband service. Once again, the US will lead the way over the next four years, as a result of its head start. By 2005, 57.3% of US homes are predicted to be broadband-enabled; in the UK it will be around a third by the same year.