Advertising Unlikely To Pick Up Following US Disaster
Whilst advertising forecasts for the near-term future were already largely negative, this week’s tragedy in the US is likely to see levels drop even further.
As a result, ads are already being pulled form TV schedules and newspapers, particularly those whose content may be felt offensive given recent events. Furthermore, whilst people are transfixed on the tragedy in the States, they are unlikely to be out consuming goods and services to the usual levels.
WPP chief executive is reported as telling an industry conference in Spain earlier this week that recovery from the advertising recession is still some time away.
Most analysts are now predicting that it will be well into the second half of next year before any discernible upturn will be seen and these analysts have a tendency to chop and change their forecasts from month to month in aggregation with one another. This means that if conditions continue to be poor – and the devastating attack on the US will not help – the recovery could take even longer.
The latest forecasts from ABN Amro and Zenith Media are shown below.
| Ad growth forecasts: ABN Amro versus Zenith | ||||||
| 2001 Zenith | 2001 ABN | Difference | 2002 Zenith | 2002 ABN | Difference | |
| North America | -4.2 | n/a* | n/a* | 0.1 | n/a* | n/a* |
| France | 0.8 | -1.1 | -1.9 | 3.6 | 3.5 | -0.1 |
| Germany | -4.0 | -2.3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 0.1 |
| Italy | 3.1 | -1.3 | -4.4 | 5.2 | 3.8 | -1.4 |
| Spain | -1.8 | -6.0 | -4.2 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 1.8 |
| UK | -3.0 | -5.4 | -2.4 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 |
| Europe | -1.8 | -2.5 | -0.7 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 0.4 |
| Japan | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | 0.7 | -0.1 | -0.8 |
| 7-country total | -2.6 | -3.7 | -1.1 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| Total | -1.6 | -2.2 | -0.6 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 |
| *US forecasts under review | ||||||
| Source: Zenith, ABN Amro estimates | ||||||
