Robert Coen, director of forecasting at Universal McCann has released his latest ad industry forecasts for the US in which he forecasts that consumer media ad revenue will fall by 8.1% in 2001 and grow by 2.7% in 2002.
Coen commented that 2001 “has been a year when problems were not foreseen and when things got bad, they happened very suddenly.”
| The Outlook For 2002 – US National Advertising |
| |
% Change over 2001 |
2002 Projections ($ m) |
| Four TV Networks |
3.5 |
15,870 |
| Spot TV |
5 |
10,300 |
| Cable TV |
5.5 |
12,010 |
| Syndication TV |
4 |
3,315 |
| Radio |
-1 |
3,615 |
| Magazines |
-1 |
10,775 |
| Newspapers |
0 |
6,650 |
| Consumer Media Sub-Total |
2.7 |
62,535 |
| Direct Mail |
2.5 |
47,305 |
| Yellow Pages |
1.5 |
2,135 |
| Internet |
0 |
4,115 |
| Other National Media |
2.5 |
29,825 |
| Total National |
2.5 |
$145,915 |
| Source: Universal McCann, December 2002 |
Coen believes that the winter olympics and the growth in political advertising prior to the primary elections will help kick start the recovery early next year, particularly for the TV networks.
| 2001 Budgets Of US National Advertisers |
| |
% change over 2000 |
2001 projections ($ m) |
| Four TV Networks |
-3.5 |
$ 15,332 |
| Spot TV |
-20 |
9,811 |
| Cable TV |
4 |
11,385 |
| Syndication TV |
2.5 |
3,186 |
| Radio |
-18 |
3,648 |
| Magazines |
-12 |
10,885 |
| Newspapers |
-8 |
6,650 |
| Consumer Media Sub-Total |
-8.1 |
60,897 |
| Direct Mail |
3.5 |
46,152 |
| Yellow Pages |
0.5 |
2,103 |
| Internet |
-5 |
4,115 |
| Other National Media |
-5.4 |
29,098 |
| Total National |
-3.9 |
$ 142,365 |
| Source: Universal McCann, December 2001 |
He goes on to say that the economic declines in the US have been mirrored in many other developed countries, impacting on advertising revenues in the same way.
| Advertising Outlook In Other Key Industrialised Countries |
| (% change over prior year in local currency) |
| |
2001 |
2002 |
| Japan |
-3.5 |
-4 |
| Germany |
-0.5 |
3.4 |
| UK |
0.9 |
2.5 |
| France |
2.8 |
3.2 |
| Italy |
-1 |
-1 |
| Brazil |
5.5 |
8 |
| Canada |
2 |
0 |
| Source: Universal McCann, December 2001 |
Although these countries have also suffered deterioration in the advertising market Coen believes that there will be modest growth in advertising in these countries and that combined they will do better than the “dismal performance in the United States this year”.
