Revised figures from the US Department of Commerce show Q4 economic growth figures of 1.4%, up from its previous estimate of 0.2%. A neutral stance on interest rates has also been adopted. Gartner says that the longer-term outlook shows a more conservative recovery.
One of the reasons for the apparent upturn, says Gartner, is demand stimulated by the war on terrorism and security efforts. This will, however, drive long term recovery, Also oil prices, adjusted for inflation, are as low as they were in the 1950 and demand for cars which has been artificially stimulated through sales tactics and low finance rates.
Low interest rates (‘near historic’ says Gartner) has led to high rates of consumer borrowing yet banks have reigned in business borrowing. Technology will be the key to any real recovery says Gartner; “economic recovery is tightly linked to the evolution of the technology-driven market economy”.
