European Ecommerce Forecasts From Emarketer
Strong investment in ebusiness infrastructure and growing online audiences have generated a positive European consumer and business ecommerce market, according to a new report from eMarketer.
Revenue forecasts Ecommerce revenues are forecast to rise from $169.8 billion by the end of this year to just under $1 trillion by 2004, as shown.
| European Ecommerce Revenue Forecasts | ||
| Revenue ($ billion) | YoY Growth (%) | |
| 2000 | 34.3 | |
| 2001 | 68.9 | 100.9 |
| 2002 | 169.8 | 146.4 |
| 2003 | 416.0 | 145.0 |
| 2004 | 979.8 | 135.5 |
| Source: eMarketer, May 2002 | ||
Business to business eMarketer continues to forecast that B2B ecommerce will reach an estimated $797.3 billion in Europe by 2004. Germany will account for the largest portion of online trade, at $230.7 billion in 2004, followed by the UK at $214.0 billion.
| European B2B Ecommerce Revenue Forecasts | ||
| Revenue ($ billion) | YoY Growth (%) | |
| 2000 | 26.2 | |
| 2001 | 52.4 | 100.0 |
| 2002 | 132.7 | 153.2 |
| 2003 | 334.1 | 151.8 |
| 2004 | 797.3 | 138.6 |
| Source: eMarketer, May 2002 | ||
Business to consumer B2C ecommerce is forecast to reach $37.1 billion by the end of 2002 and will grow to $182.5 billion by 2004, according to the report. eMarketer’s forecast “assumes that the continued diffusion of broadband, interactive TV (iTV) and mobile internet applications will lead to an evolution in European consumer habits and concomitant growth in B2C spending.”
Projecting to 2004, eMarketer expects that the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for B2C ecommerce revenues will be 118%. By comparison, the CAGR for retail ecommerce in the US over the same period will be approximately 31%.
| European B2C Ecommerce Revenue Forecasts | ||
| Revenue ($ billion) | YoY Growth (%) | |
| 2000 | 8.1 | |
| 2001 | 16.5 | 103.7 |
| 2002 | 37.1 | 124.8 |
| 2003 | 81.8 | 120.5 |
| 2004 | 182.5 | 123.1 |
| Source: eMarketer, May 2002 | ||
Western Europe Separate forecasts, from the European Information Technology Observatory (EITO), show that Europe had 148 million web users – 38% of the total population – and predict that this will rise to 63% of the population by 2005 (see Ecommerce, Technology, IT And Internet Forecasts From EITO).
Total Western European internet commerce in 2001 amounted to approximately E172 billion. EITO expects this market to increase ten times reaching E1,682 billion by 2005.