Merrill Lynch analysts have cut their European advertising growth forecasts for 2002 and 2003, as economies remain relatively weak. The forecast for this year has been reduced from -2.0% to -3.0%, whilst 2003 is downgraded from 3.5% to 1.5-2.0%.
The broker has made similar reductions to its US and global ad forecasts (see
Merrill Lynch Lowers 2003 US And Global Ad Forecasts). In Europe, Merrill says that economies are generally weak and Germany has been somewhat paralysed by elections and floods. The UK is starting to pick up and Italy remains firm.
Asian spending, largely driven by Japan, is likely to be down 2.0-3.0%, versus the previous forecast of -2.0%. Erring on the side of caution, it is now forecasting a 2.0-2.5% increase in 2003, as against 4.0% previously.
A decline of 2.0% this year is expected in Latin America as Mexico and Brazil have grown, offset by declines in Argentina. In 2003, the previous expectation of a 5.0% rise has been lowered to 2.0-3.0% due to the absence of the World Cup and based on expected growth in Mexico and Brazil and stabilisation in Argentina.
