EMAP Ad Revenue Forecasts From Merrill Lynch
EMAP chairman, Adam Broadbent, today delivered a confident trading update to the company’s AGM, saying that trading expectations for the full year are achievable (see Consumer Mags Advertising Resilient, Radio Still Down At EMAP).
Radio airtime sales remain down across Q1, but there are now signs of a marginal improvement. Television revenues from the company’s six digital music channels are growing strongly, but still only comprise a small proportion of EMAP’s overall revenues.
After a strong start in April, business to business recruitment revenues have turned negative across the quarter. The trend on display advertising continues to improve as prior year comparisons become easier, although year-on-year growth has not yet been achieved.
The group’s French operations are continuing to show a strong advertising performance, with good underlying year on year growth.
Merrill Lynch estimates for the full year, 2003 and 2004 – based on EMAP’s figures so far – are shown here.
| EMAP Advertising Growth Summary | |||||
| 2002 | Merrill Lynch 2003F | Merrill Lynch 2004F | |||
| H1 | Implied H2 | FY | |||
| Radio | -7.0 | -15.0 | -11.0 | -1.5 | 6.0 |
| UK consumer mags | 6.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 |
| B2B recruitment adv. | 8.0 | -4.0 | 2.0 | -5.0 | 2.0 |
| B2B display adv. | -12.0 | -6.0 | -9.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 |
| B2B exhibitions | -1.0 | -5.0 | -3.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 |
| France advertising | 7.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 |
| Source: Merrill Lynch/EMAP, July 2002 | |||||
