The respected prognosticator cites the weakness of the stock market as the main reason for his new found pessimism. In the current economic climate, financial service companies are apparently unwilling to increase advertising spend and this reluctance has spread to other businesses.
“The stock market does make me nervous,” Coen said, “and there are a lot of companies that are watching for profit levels and becoming more cautious.”
Political advertising is set to rise in the second half of the year and television and radio markets are already showing signs of revival. However, Coen claims that these profits will be negated by relatively weak growth in the cable and magazine sectors.
Outside the US, Coen reduced 2002 adspend forecasts from December’s $226.8 billion to $214 billion. He calculates that worldwide advertising spend will total $450.2 billion, an increase of 2.1% on 2001.
He is more bullish about prospects for 2003, predicting a 5.5% rise in global spending to $475 billion, of which US spend will account for $249.2 billion.
