Figures from French publishing group, Lagardere, suggest that there is no recovery in advertising levels for US magazines, according to analysts at Merrill Lynch.
Lagardere has magazine publishing and other media operations in a number of regions around the world, so its figures provide some degree of yardstick by which to measure various markets.
Merrill Lynch says that magazine advertising in France and Japan is still more or less flat, whilst Italy is showing a small increase; Spain is deteriorating slightly, with single digital declines. This trend was already visible in the first quarter, says the broker.
Declines in Q1 2002 were substantial in the US magazine operations, but were pitched against a very strong Q1 2001. Declines in Q2 this year showed a less severe decline, but the comparisons are easier as Q2 2001 started to show its own negative growth.
Early warning The broker notes that monthly magazines’ trading can act as an early warning indicator to media owners as production deadlines oblige them to sell ads months in advance of publication dates.
On this basis, Lagardere has forward visibility on the sector all the way through until October, based on trading that has already been completed. The group is not seeing any improvement in advertising spend yet during this period.
Visibility for Lagardere’s radio stations in France is still limited and declines are continuing, although they are slowly improving; accordingly, the quarterly trend is heading towards flat, say Merrill analysts.
