UK Ad Growth To Pick Up In 2003, Peak In 2004, Says OMD UK
Advertising growth in the UK is expected to average about 3% per year between now and 2007, with the strongest year being 2004, according to new long term forecasts from media buying agency, OMD UK.
Growth in total advertising spend is predicted to be flat this year, rising to 3.4% in 2003 and peaking at 5.0% in 2004, after which the rate is expected to fall.
The same pattern is forecast for display-only advertising revenues, with a slight growth of 1.2% set for this year, followed by 3.5% in 2003, 5.6% in 2004 and then a gradual tailing off into 2007.
| UK Total Advertising Forecasts (Current Prices) | ||
| Revenue (£ billion) | Year On Year Growth (%) | |
| 2000 | 12.2 | 9.9 |
| 2001 | 11.6 | -4.9 |
| 2002 | 11.6 | 0.0 |
| 2003 | 12.0 | 3.4 |
| 2004 | 12.6 | 5.0 |
| 2005 | 13.1 | 4.0 |
| 2006 | 13.5 | 3.1 |
| 2007 | 13.9 | 2.6 |
| Source: AA/OMD UK, October 2002 | ||
| UK Display Advertising Forecasts (Current Prices) | ||
| Revenue (£ billion) | Year On Year Growth (%) | |
| 2000 | 9.2 | 9.5 |
| 2001 | 8.5 | -7.6 |
| 2002 | 8.6 | 1.2 |
| 2003 | 8.9 | 3.5 |
| 2004 | 9.4 | 5.6 |
| 2005 | 9.8 | 4.3 |
| 2006 | 10.1 | 3.1 |
| 2007 | 10.3 | 2.0 |
| Source: AA/OMD UK, October 2002 | ||
By way of comparison, the latest growth forecasts from Zenith Optimedia are included here. Zenith is more pessimistic than OMD, predicting a 3.0% decline this year, followed by a further 0.9% drop in 2003 and flat growth in 2004.
| UK Ad Growth Forecasts Comparison, Current Prices | ||
| Zenith Optimedia | OMD UK | |
| 2001 | -6.2 | -4.9 |
| 2002 | -3.0 | 0.0 |
| 2003 | -0.9 | 3.4 |
| 2004 | 0.0 | 5.0 |
| Source: Zenith Optimedia, September 2002/OMD UK, October 2002 | ||