Insight Analysis: Global And Regional Advertising Forecast Comparisons
The consensus of a number of the most recent advertising forecasts puts 2002 global growth at 0.2%, rising to 3.4% in 2003. This is a notable upgrade on the previous consensus, as compiled by MediaTelINSIGHT in September (see Insight Analysis: Global And Regional Advertising Forecasts Comparisons).
These figures are compiled from an average of the most recent forecasts from Lehman Brothers, Zenith Optimedia, Merrill Lynch, ABN AMRO, Universal McCann and the World Advertising Research Centre (WARC). The consensus for European growth is now -1.8% this year and 2.5% in 2003.
Figures for the top five European advertising markets – namely, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK – show a consensus growth of -2.8% in 2002 and 1.6% in 2003.
The US is forecast to lead the way out of the downturn, with a 1.3% growth this year, followed by 3.5% next year.
| Most Recent Regional Advertising Forecast Comparisons | ||||||||||
| ÂÂ | ÂÂ | ÂÂ | ÂÂ | ÂÂ | ÂÂ | ÂÂ | ÂÂ | ÂÂ | ||
| ÂÂ | US | Europe | Europe Top 5 | Global | Asia-Pacific | |||||
| ÂÂ | 2002 | 2003 | 2002 | 2003 | 2002 | 2003 | 2002 | 2003 | 2002 | 2003 |
| Lehman Brothers | 1.4 | 3.7 | -2.0 | 3.5 | – | – | 0.6 | 3.8 | – | – |
| Merrill Lynch | 0.7 | 4.0 | -2.2 | 1.8 | -3.0 | 1.0 | -1.2 | 3.0 | -2.5 | 2.3 |
| Universal McCann | 2.7 | 5.3 | – | – | – | – | 1.6 | 4.9 | – | – |
| WARC | 1.4 | 4.0 | – | – | -2.6 | 2.0 | – | – | – | – |
| ABN AMRO | 0.5 | 2.2 | -1.7 | 2.0 | – | – | -0.4 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 3.5 |
| Zenith Optimedia | 1.3 | 1.9 | -1.1 | 2.5 | -2.8 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 4.1 |
| Average | 1.3 | 3.5 | -1.8 | 2.5 | -2.8 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 3.4 | 0.0 | 3.3 |
| Source: As above, compiled by MediaTelINSIGHT, December 2002 | ||||||||||
