ITV’s Market Share To Fall 2% Points In 2003, Says Merrill Lynch
ITV’s share of the television advertising market is set to drop by two percentage points next year, as around 70% of the Network’s advertisers renegotiate their new annual contracts at the end of this year. This is according to a new set of estimates from Merrill Lynch.
Analysts at Merrill say that ITV’s share of the market will fall from an expected to 53.6% this year to 51.5% in 2003.
The UK TV market as a whole is forecast to grow by 3.3% next year; Merrill is downgrading its ITV revenue growth forecast from 0.5% to -0.7%. However, it has upgraded its growth forecast for the final quarter of this year, to 2.7%.
| UK Television Advertising Revenue Forecasts | ||||||
| 2002 | 2003 | |||||
| Revenue (£m) | Share (%) | Growth (%) | Revenue (£m) | Share (%) | Growth (%) | |
| Total ITV | 1861.6 | 53.6 | -2.1 | 1669.7 | 51.5 | -0.7 |
| GMTV | 58.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 58.3 | 1.8 | -0.7 |
| Channel 4 | 634.4 | 20.2 | 4.9 | 646.1 | 19.9 | 1.8 |
| S4C | 9.3 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 9.4 | 0.3 | 1.8 |
| Channel 5 | 236.7 | 7.5 | 23.4 | 274.0 | 8.5 | 15.8 |
| Total terrestrial NAR | 2620.7 | 2.1 | 2657.6 | 1.4 | ||
| BSkyB | 266.3 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 294.4 | 9.1 | 10.5 |
| Other Astra | 251.1 | 8.0 | 28.7 | 290.3 | 9.0 | 15.6 |
| Total non-terrestrial NAR | 517.4 | 16.5 | 15.0 | 584.7 | 18.0 | 13.0 |
| Total TV | 3138.1 | 100.0 | 4.0 | 3242.2 | 100.0 | 3.3 |
| Source: Merrill Lynch, December 2002 | ||||||
| ITV Advertising Growth Trends And Forecasts | |||||||||||||
| January | February | March | April | May | June | July | August | September | October | November | December | Total | |
| 2002 | -16.0 | -16.8 | -7.1 | -11.6 | 9.4 | 10.7 | 3.9 | 7.3 | 1.9 | 10.1 | 3.1 | -6.8 | -1.2 |
| 2003 | -1.0 | 1.0 | -1.5 | 1.0 | -3.0 | -8.0 | -0.7 | -4.0 | 2.0 | -0.7 | 1.0 | 6.0 | -0.7 |
| 2004 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Source: Merrill Lynch estimates, December 2002 | |||||||||||||