The US advertising market is currently performing much better than Europe’s, where Germany – already weak – has started to deteriorate further. These are some of the findings of Merrill Lynch, which hosted an advertising dinner earlier this week.
The broker says that the greater confidence of Q4 2002, which came from advertisers and consumer indicators, has now dissipated and 2003 forecasts are likely to be brought down. The year is still expected to finish with above zero growth, despite the uncertainty being created by a likely war in the Middle East, possible terrorist activity and weakening consumer spend.
The prospects for 2004 are seen as better, with ZenithOptimedia forecasting a global advertising growth of 4.4%.
As Europe remains weak, multinational advertisers that have allocated marketing spend increases in the US are ‘sitting on their hands’ in Europe, says Merrill.
UK television The position for UK TV is also looking weaker, with Merrill Lynch warning that the 2003 forecasts could be downgraded to show virtually no growth for the full year.
Earlier forecasts by the broker put ITV’s revenues down by as much as 10% in March (see INSIGHTanalysis: ITV1 Share Further Eroded In 2002).
