The growth of the Freeview platform will slow significantly next year and then continue to fall in the following years, according to forecasts from Informa Media Group.
Informa expects Freeview to add 1.1 million homes during 2003, but growth will fall sharply next year to 678,000 homes. In 2005, the digital terrestrial platform would add 357,000 homes and in the following five years around 250,000 a year. This would mean a total of 4.7 million Freeview homes by 2010, when the government hopes to switch off analogue terrestrial broadcasts.
Under this model, Freeview would account for 19% of all UK television homes by 2010, with a further 49% of homes taking digital television via cable or satellite. This gives total DTV penetration of 68% – well below the Government’s target of 95% by 2010.
Informa forecasts that Freeview will end 2003 with 2.4 million homes, helped by a pre-Christmas marketing campaign. The group says that its forecast is in line with that of Intellect, the UK consumer electronics trade association, which expects the year-end 2003 figure to be 2.39 million homes, up from 1.9 million at the end of June.
