Coen Raises US Advertising Growth Forecasts
Universal McCann’s chief advertising prognosticator, Robert Coen, this week unveiled his latest predictions for the fortunes of the US market. Coen raised his US forecast for 2003 growth from June’s 4.6% to 5.2% and his 2004 estimate has been taken up from 6.5% to 6.9%.
National adspend in the States has proven slightly stronger than Coen anticipated in June, whilst local was a touch weaker (see Coen Pulls Down 2003 Ad Forecasts). The new forecasts reflect this, with national raised from 5.2% to 6.5% and local reduced from 3.5% to 3.1%.
| US Advertising Growth Forecasts | ||
| ÂÂ | ÂÂ | ÂÂ |
| ÂÂ | 2003 | 2004 |
| National | 6.5 | 7.4 |
| Local | 3.1 | 6.0 |
| Total | 5.2 | 6.9 |
| Source: Universal McCann, December 2003 | ||
The new report predicts that the US economy will exhibit solid, sustainable growth in 2004 and this should lead to “strong market competition across all products and services and for most types of marketing communications.”
The major categories, such as such as auto, cosmetics and pharmaceuticals are the drivers behind the recovery in 2003, according to Merrill Lynch. Secondary categories such as telecom, computers and apparel, which drove the gains in 1999 and 2000, but fell dramatically in 2001 and 2002, have also stabilised in 2003. In addition, dotcom advertising is now starting to return to growth after two years of heavy declines.
| UNIVERSAL MCCANN ADVERTISING GROWTH FORECASTS | ||
| 2003 | 2004 | |
| National | ||
| Four TV networks | 3.5 | 12.0 |
| Spot TV | -2.5 | 9.0 |
| Cable TV | 17.0 | 12.0 |
| Syndication TV | 15.0 | 9.0 |
| Radio | 6.0 | 7.0 |
| Magazines | 7.0 | 5.0 |
| Newspapers | 7.0 | 7.5 |
| Direct mail | 6.5 | 5.0 |
| Yellow pages | 1.0 | 3.5 |
| Internet | 15.0 | 10.0 |
| Other media | 4.9 | 7.0 |
| Total | 6.5 | 7.4 |
| Local | ||
| Newspapers | 2.5 | 6.0 |
| TV | 3.6 | 7.0 |
| Radio | 2.5 | 6.0 |
| Yellow pages | 1.0 | 3.5 |
| Other media | 6.4 | 7.2 |
| Total | 3.1 | 6.0 |
| Source: Universal McCann, December 2003 | ||
For a comparison of all the latest advertising spend and growth forecasts click here.