Merrill Lynch has upgraded its ad revenue forecast for ITV after the newly-merged TV giant said it has seen “positive signs” in the market. In ITV’s first financial results release yesterday (see ITV On Target To Save £100 Million From Merger), the company said it expects ITV1 advertising in the first quarter of 2004 to be up slightly, and combined ITV1 and ITV2 revenues to increase by around £4m.
For 2004 overall, ITV expects ad revenue for its flagship channel ITV1 to be closer to the overall market growth. Merrill Lynch has increased its full-year projection for the broadcaster to 2.5%, from 2.1%.
The analyst now expects ITV’s advertising revenues in the first quarter to increase by 8%, compared to its previous forecast of -0.9%.
This is in line with media buyers estimates, which expect ITV to post its first quarterly growth in ad revenue since Q4 2002 in the first quarter of 2004.
First quarter growth in ad revenue across the entire UK television industry will reach 3.3%, according to media buyers’ estimates and Mediatel data.
| Total ITV1 Quarterly Advertising Revenues (£m) |
| |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Full Year |
| 2004 (est) |
373 |
429 |
383 |
483 |
1,668 |
| YoY % Change |
8.0 |
4.0 |
3.0 |
2.0 |
2.5 |
| 2003 |
371 |
413 |
372 |
474 |
1,628 |
| YoY % Change |
-4.4 |
-4.7 |
-5.2 |
-0.2 |
-3.5 |
| 2002 |
388 |
433 |
392 |
475 |
1,687 |
| YoY % Change |
-12.6 |
2.3 |
4.4 |
3.6 |
-0.8 |
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| Source: ITV data, Merrill Lynch estimates |
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