Worldwide growth in the mobile phone industry is expected to hit its highest level ever this year, surpassing the 335 million new additions in 2004, according to the latest market forecast by Informa Telecoms & Media.
The analysts’s new predictions highlight the ability of mobile operators to target niche demographics in order to avoid downturn in more mature markets. Examples of these tactics can be found in the targeting of under-14s, and in the marketing of secondary subscriptions – a trend which Informa claims shows “little sign of slowing in the near term.”
Informa’s figures set the mobile industry’s anticipated new additions at 380 million for 2005, marking a 16% increase year on year, while worldwide reductions in access fees for rapidly expanding markets such as Nigeria and Mexico have had a positive impact on short-term growth.
Informa claims that numerous short-term marketing promotions by operators around the world have also been successful in pushing up subscription numbers, with several operators offering accounts and SIM cards “virtually free of charge” in the prepaid sector, provided new customers also sign up their friends and family.
The predictions show growth slowing in 2006, with Informa expecting the “frenzied growth” in several major markets such as Russia to cool.
The long-term outlook for the industry is more positive, however, as Informa’s predicted penetration levels in large markets such as India are revised upwards. This is due, the analyst explains, to cheaper mobile handsets and greater coverage from increasingly consolidated operators. Informa also expects greater investment to be made into less urbanised areas.
Informa’s predictions look likely to be realised, with the latest figures from research and analysis firm Gartner showing 190.5 million mobile phone sales during the second quarter of 2005, up by 21.6% year on year to mark the second strongest quarter for handset sales on record (see Global Mobile Phone Sales Hit 190.5 Million Units In Q2 2005).
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