The Advertising Association (AA) has released its latest long-term forecast, compiled by the World Advertising Research Centre (WARC), predicting a substantial rise of up to 43% in advertising expenditure between now and 2017.
The new forecast follows a strong performance in 2004, with advertising expenditure growth in Britain slowing this year as the economy has cooled. A more solid recovery is now expected by the AA next year, with annual growth rates then rising steadily before peaking in 2009.
The AA expects underlying economic forces driving adspend to continue to be positive for the foreseeable future, although the trade body reiterated that the performance of individual media will be affected by both the underlying growth of advertising expenditure and by the “competitive forces that affect spending in different media forms.”
| High and Low Twelve Year Forecast Options |
| (£m at constant 2000 prices) |
| |
High Option |
Low Option |
| Year |
Total |
Display |
Classified |
Total |
Display |
Classified |
| 2005 |
16,084 |
11,990 |
4,093 |
15,932 |
11,893 |
4,040 |
| 2017 |
22,998 |
17,885 |
5,113 |
21,781 |
17,367 |
4,414 |
| Source: AA’s Long Term Advertising Expenditure Forecast |
The AA’s report concludes that, although individual media will see a mixed performance, the next decade will have a general pattern of growth for the advertising industry, despite the “perceived threats”.
According to the new figures, real growth will rise by 43% between 2005 and 2015 on the AA’s ‘High Option,’ with the absence of major threats to advertising. On the AA’s ‘Low Option’ real growth is projected at 37% over the same time period.
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