UK advertising expenditure looks set to remain volatile over the next 12 years, reaching a high point in 2009 with year on year growth of 6.3%, dropping to just 1.8% growth in 2014.
According to the Advertising Association’s long term forecast, adspend seems settled for the next couple of years, with a year on year growth rate of 4.3% expected for 2006 and 2007.
Up until 2010 adspend will enjoy significant growth, peaking at 6.3% growth in 2009 and dipping slightly at 5.8% in 2010.
The AA projects advertising expenditure to decline slightly for a few years after 2010, dropping by 2.2% between 2013 and 2014, seeing a year on year growth rate of 4% and 1.8%, respectively.
By the end of the forecast period, the advertising market seems to be recovering, with the AA projecting growth of 6.1% year on year for 2017.
The AA’s estimates are more optimistic that those from Initiative Media, with the agency expecting 2006 to be another slow year for the UK media market, projecting year on year growth of 3.7% (see UK Adspend To Rise By 3.7% In 2006).
| |
| Advertising Association Adspend Forecasts (high option) |
| |
Growth in % (year on year) |
| 2004 |
5.5 |
| 2005 |
1.9 |
| 2006 |
4.3 |
| 2007 |
4.3 |
| 2008 |
6.1 |
| 2009 |
6.3 |
| 2010 |
5.8 |
| 2011 |
4.9 |
| 2012 |
5 |
| 2013 |
4 |
| 2014 |
1.8 |
| 2015 |
2.1 |
| 2016 |
4.4 |
| 2017 |
6.1 |
| Source: AA December 2005 |
| |
| Advertising Association Adspend Forecasts (low option) |
| |
Growth in % (year on year) |
| 2004 |
5.5 |
| 2005 |
1 |
| 2006 |
2.8 |
| 2007 |
4.1 |
| 2008 |
4.2 |
| 2009 |
4.4 |
| 2010 |
4.4 |
| 2011 |
4.6 |
| 2012 |
4.6 |
| 2013 |
4.6 |
| 2014 |
4.6 |
| 2015 |
4.7 |
| 2016 |
4.8 |
| 2017 |
5 |
| Source: AA December 2005 |
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