Universal McCann’s latest global ad forecast predicts worldwide advertising to reach $653.9 billion in 2008, a year on year rise of 4.6%, with the UK forecast to grow 3.5% year on year in 2008 following a rise of 3.8% this year.
It expects advertising in the US to grow much slower than the rest of the world next year, with a rise of just 3.7% on 2007, reaching, $294.4 billion.
McCann says that expectations for the ad market in the US next year are mixed, but the elections and Olympics could help to create an overdue return to more traditional advertising spending.
However, with intense focus on improving or maintaining corporate profits, a significant surge in advertising in 2008 does not seem likely.
| Outlook For 2007 US National Advertising |
| |
% Change Over 2007 |
2008 Projections $(000,000) |
| 4 TV Networks |
5.0% |
$17,895 |
| Spot TV |
10.0% |
$11,957 |
| Cable TV |
6.1% |
$21,718 |
| Syndication TV |
1.0% |
$3,430 |
| Radio |
1.0% |
$4,350 |
| Magazines |
3.0% |
$14,106 |
| Newspapers |
-1.0% |
$6,558 |
| Consumer Media Sub-Total |
4.7% |
$80,014 |
| Direct Mail |
4.5% |
$63,732 |
| Yellow Pages |
2.0% |
$2,272 |
| Internet |
16.5% |
$12,722 |
| Other National Media |
5.7% |
$39,802 |
| Total National |
5.5% |
$198,542 |
| Source: Universal McCann |
McCann adds that overseas ad spending should grow faster, aided by above average growth in many emerging markets. It expects it to increase 5.3% to $359.5 billion in 2008.
Large emerging countries such as China, India and Russia are more than offsetting sluggish ad growth in some large developed countries like Germany, Japan and others, says McCann.
With most major countries in the world enjoying better real economic growth in 2007, more of the same is expected next year, with a large number of countries in Latin America and in the Asia Pacific Region also expected to have strong economic growth next year.
McCann says that although the ad outlook in most key industrial countries next year appears better than the US, it will not be by much.
| 2008 Ad Outlook In Key Industrialised Countries (Percentage Change Over Prior Year In Normal Currencies) |
| Country |
2006 |
2007 |
Forecast 2008 |
| Japan |
0.6% |
1.1% |
1.3% |
| Germany |
1.2% |
3.2% |
2.4% |
| United Kingdom |
3.8% |
3.8% |
3.5% |
| France |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.2% |
| Italy |
3.7% |
2.8% |
3.3% |
| Spain |
7.6% |
5.0% |
5.3% |
| Canada |
4.5% |
6.2% |
5.8% |
| Mexico |
5.0% |
5.0% |
4.0% |
| Australia |
6.0% |
4.6% |
4.6% |
| Netherlands |
2.1% |
4.5% |
5.1% |
| Source: Universal McCann |
The latest forecast from ZenithOptimedia expects global ad expenditure to grow 6.7% in 2008, up from 5.3% this year, thanks to the Olympic Games, elections in the US and European football.
Zenith puts this down to developing markets taking over as the main contributors to global advertising expenditure growth and compensating for slow growth in developed markets (see Global Ad Market To Grow In 2008).
GroupM predicts that advertising spending in US measured media will show an almost 4% year on year increase in 2008, with worldwide spending expected to rise 7% to $479 billion in 2008 (see Worldwide Adspend Expected To Rise 7% to $479 billion In 2008).
Related Links
