A new forecast from Carat predicts that 2009 will see advertising growth of 4.9% worldwide, with the fastest-growing regions set to be Asia Pacific and Latin America.
2008’s global advertising forecasts have been revised marginally downwards to 6.0% from 6.2% forecast in September last year.
Segment-wise, the strongest growth remains in digital, at 23.3% for 2008, although it is expected to slow to 18% in 2009. Just behind that are cinema and out-of-home, closely followed by TV. Only newspapers are declining overall.
In Europe, the UK is predicted to see 6.4% growth for 2008, with Romania and Russia at 35% and 22.6% for 2008 respectively.
The World Advertising Research Center’s Long Term Advertising Expenditure Forecast, published in January, forecast that advertising expenditure in the UK could grow by as much as 37.9% in real terms by 2019 (see UK Adspend Could Grow 38% By 2019).
Carat said that the US is forecast to see slower growth than most in 2008, at 3.9%. However, that rate of growth is up from 1.6% in 2007. Within that, Canada is forecast to grow at 7.2%, although its market is less than one twentieth of the US total.
The Asia Pacific region is the second fastest growing area with an average growth rate of 8.8% for 2008, with China at 19.7% and India on 20.6% leading the way. The region with the swiftest growth of all is Latin America; on average, countries here are growing at 12%, said Carat.
A strong year is predicted for TV in 2008 with 7.2% growth, up from 4.4% in 2007. This is steady across the globe with mid single digits in most countries, aside from Russia with phenomenal predicted increases of 27.3% in 2008.
Newspaper advertising is the only category forecast to decline for the coming two years, particularly in North America where they are set to be down 3.0% for 2008 and 3.4% for 2009. In contrast, newspapers are predicted to be up 10.8% for 2008 in Latin America.
Mainardo de Nardis, CEO of Aegis Media, said: “Thanks to one-off events like the Beijing Olympics and the US Presidential elections, we are predicting strong global growth in ad spend for this year, up to 6.0% from 4.6% in 2007. Overall, our forecasts for 2009 are more conservative than those for 2008, but we do not foresee a severe slowdown in global spend as a result of the last six months’ financial uncertainty.
“Digital’s success story continues. We predict it will approach a 10% share of all global ad spend in 2009. Outdoor and TV are also set to enjoy strong growth in 2008.”
A recent study from GroupM forecast that global advertising spending in measured media is expected to show almost a 7% gain to $479 billion in 2008 compared to 2007, when spending was up 6% (see Global Ad Spending To Increase 6.8% In 2008).
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