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INSIGHTanalysis: Media Healthcheck – March 2008

INSIGHTanalysis: Media Healthcheck – March 2008

March saw the publication of the Advertising Association’s (AA) Advertising Forecast, researched and compiled by the World Advertising Research Center (WARC).

The AA forecast that advertising expenditure in the UK will rise by 3.2% this year with outdoor & transport and the internet leading the growth (see UK Adspend To Rise 3.2%).

In separate research, the AA predicted that advertising expenditure in Europe will grow by 3.9% in 2008, despite real economic growth slowing to just 1.8% (see European Adspend Forecast To Grow 4% In 2008).

Spending on online advertising is expected to grow by 30.5% in Europe this year. Outdoor advertising is also expected to show above-average growth across the region.

TNS Media Intelligence published a report which revealed that the US advertising market finished 2007 with measured spending of $148.99 billion, up 0.2% year on year.

TNS added that total expenditures during the fourth quarter of 2007 fell by 0.1% versus a year ago (see US Advertising Expenditures Grew 0.2% In 2007).

Also last month, ZenithOptimedia downgraded its 2007 combined growth forecasts for North America and Western Europe from 4.4% to 3.8% (see Zenith Downgrades Ad Forecast).

However, it increased its 2008 forecasts for the rest of the world from 10.9% to 11.1%.

The combined result is a slight downgrade of global growth from 6.7% to 6.5%, still well above the 5.0% average rate at which the global ad market has grown for the last ten years.

A forecast from Carat predicted that there will be global advertising growth of 4.9% in 2009, with the fastest growing regions set to be Asia Pacific and Latin America.

Segment-wise, said Carat, the strongest growth remains in digital, at 23.3% for 2008, although it is expected to slow to 18% in 2009. Just behind that are cinema and out-of-home, closely followed by TV. Only newspapers are declining overall (see Global Adspend Forecast To Grow 4.9% in 2009).

eMarketer released a UK focused forecast predicting that advertisers will spend £3.4 billion online in 2008, a rise of 27% from the year before.

Internet advertising spending will continue to show double-digit growth through 2010, said eMarketer, passing £4.3 billion in 2010 and exceeding £5 billion in 2012 (see Online Adspend To Rise 27% In 2008).

In other research, Screen Digest said that the TV advertising market is set for a tough two years, with the outlook improving from 2010 to 2012 (see Global TV Ad Market Set For Tough Two Years).

Screen Digest said that 2008 will be a difficult trading year for TV advertising, with spend growing at a lower rate than the economy, at only 1.9% in Europe and 1.5% in the US.

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