Heavy bandwidth constraints could result in just 7% penetration of high definition digital terrestrial television (HD-DTT) in the UK by 2012, with a similar scenario playing out across Europe, according to a new broadcast tracking and analysis service from Understanding & Solutions.
Although bandwidth will be freed up in many countries after analogue switch off, the spectrum will be sold or auctioned to the highest bidder, and broadcasters will find it hard to match the potential revenue offers from mobile and broadband operators, said Understanding & Solutions.
“Improvements in compression technologies like MPEG-4 AVC are making HD-DTT solutions a possibility,” said Graeme Packman, principal consultant at Understanding & Solutions, “although only with a very limited number of channels. Further technological development will help breach the bottleneck, but it’s a slow process requiring considerable international coordination.”
The UK is currently taking the lead in addressing some of these issues and has two separate sets of proposals. The first is a formal proposal backed by the UK regulator Ofcom, and is going through a structured evaluation process.
The second route is a much more ambitious set of proposals from an independent expert industry group, officials from the DVB standards group, and the UK industry body DTG, which could result in 40 HD-DTT channels becoming available.
“Implementation of the more radical of these proposals could require the amendment of currently agreed spectrum allocations,” continued Packman, “which will mean the rapid obsolescence of broadcasters’ investment plans for digital transition. However, it would lead to more frequencies being handed back and potentially a greater opportunity for the government to raise money.
“To make this happen, two of the 14 frequencies due to be handed back at ASO need to be retained with a view to handing back up to ten more frequencies in the future.”
A recent report from Informa Telecoms & Media forecast that there will be 179 million active HD homes by 2012, representing 16% of TV households – more than quadruple the 2008 figure (see Ofcom Plans New Public Service Channel To Rival BBC).
Last year, Continental Research published a report which found that of all UK consumers aware of HDTV, the proportion of people likely to subscribe has jumped to 30%, with 5% of these saying they are almost certain to subscribe to the service (see Rapid Growth Of US HDTV Continues).
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