eMarketer’s revised projection for US online ad growth, benchmarked against the latest Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) and PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) data, puts online ad spending at $25.7 billion in 2009.
That is only 8.9% over the $23.6 billion that will be spent in 2008, said eMarketer.
In August, eMarketer predicted online ad spending would grow 14.5% in 2009. However, now that the full extent of the economic downturn is apparent, the new projection is lower and recovery is expected to take longer.
| US Online Advertising Spending Growth, by Format, 2008-2013 (% change) |
| |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
| Search |
81.0% |
44.9% |
47.1% |
48.0% |
62.2% |
53.3% |
| Display Ads |
13.9% |
7.5% |
10.9% |
13.7% |
15.6% |
13.5% |
| Video |
1.3% |
2.5% |
2.2% |
6.6% |
11.5% |
13.5% |
| Rich Media |
3.9% |
6.6% |
10.4% |
13.5% |
16.1% |
10.9% |
| Classifieds |
21.4% |
14.9% |
13.0% |
12.1% |
13.7% |
10.4% |
| Lead Generation |
-7.2% |
-12.9% |
5.4% |
6.4% |
9.2% |
6.8% |
| Sponsorships |
11.3% |
3.5% |
5.1% |
6.0% |
8.8% |
6.4% |
| E-Mail |
-5.5% |
-5.8% |
-0.7% |
0.3% |
0.5% |
0.7% |
| Total |
11.3% |
8.9% |
10.9% |
12.3% |
15.6% |
13.5% |
| Source: eMarketer, November 2008 |
eMarketer forecasts that in 2010, online ad spending growth will return into the double digits at 10.9%, and in 2013 it will only hit 13.5%.
Even paid search, which has grown at an outsize pace for years, will see a mere 21.4% rise in spending this year, said the online research firm.
David Hallerman, senior analyst at eMarketer, said: “Especially in economic turmoil, search is more trackable than any other ad format.
“At this stage, it is a tried-and-true format that is supporting online growth.”
Earlier this month, American banking giant JP Morgan reduced its online advertising forecast for the second time in two months, estimating an annual growth rate of 25% in 2008 and 13% in 2009, down from 28% and 19%, respectively (see JP Morgan reduces online ad forecast).
A forecast from Enders Analysis, meanwhile, predicted that the digital media sector would see growth cut to just over 2% in 2009, with online display advertising, predicted to grow by 10.2% this year, contracting by 5.5% in 2009 (see UK ad spend to fall by 12% in 2009).
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