UK ad spend is expected to drop 0.8% this year, the first annual drop since 2001, according to new forecasts from ZenithOptimedia.
This 0.8% drop is a large downward revision of the Publicis Groupe agency’s forecast of 4.9% growth made earlier this year.
Ad spend is expected to rise to 1.5% in 2009, buoyed by 16.8% growth in online. With online taken out of the equation, UK ad spend will fall by 3.1% in 2009.
However, there is some good news. Cinema is expected to grow 3.5% this year and remain stable in 2009, while television is set to fall just 3% next year.
Zenith also forecasts revenue drops in 2008 and 2009 respectively – national newspapers down 7.2% and 3.6%; radio down 6% and 3%; magazines down 5.9% and 2.8%; and outdoor down 7.6% and 2%.
Last week GroupM forecast that UK ad spend would fall by nearly 6% year on year in 2009, the worst of any developed country (see UK ad spend to fall nearly 6% in 2009).
A forecast released yesterday by ZenithOptimedia predicted that global ad spend would decline 0.2% overall in 2009 (see ZenithOptimedia forecasts no growth in global adspend in 2009).
Developing markets will largely counterbalance the decline in North America and Western Europe’s ad spend next year, which will fall by 5.7% and 1% respectively, said Zenith.
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