At the start of December, GroupM forecast that total UK advertising spend would fall by nearly 6% year on year in 2009, the worst of any developed country.
GroupM said that UK national newspaper advertising would be down 12% year on year this year, regional titles down 13%, and the business-to-business magazine sector down 14% (see
UK ad spend to fall nearly 6% in 2009).
A ZenithOptimedia forecast said that UK ad spend would drop 0.8% in 2008, the first annual drop since 2001 (see UK ad spend forecast to fall 0.8% this year).
Zenith added that ad spend should rise to 1.5% in 2009, buoyed by 16.8% growth in online. With online taken out of the equation, UK ad spend will fall by 3.1% this year.
Worldwide, Zenith forecast that global ad spend would decline 0.2% overall in 2009, with Asia Pacific and Central & Eastern Europe still growing but at a slower rate than previously forecast.
It said that developing markets will largely counterbalance the decline in North America and Western Europe’s ad spend next year, which will fall by 5.7% and 1% respectively (see ZenithOptimedia forecasts no growth in global adspend in 2009).
GroupM also released a global ad spend forecast, which predicted a fall in measured media of 0.2% to $458 billion this year compared to a rise of 2.6% in 2008.
The projected decline is the first retreat in global advertising since the 3% fall recorded in 2001 after 2000’s dotcom-driven ad growth of 15%, said GroupM (see Global ad spend to fall 0.2% in 2009).
Merrill Lynch predicted that global ad spend will fall 1.6% in 2009, having previously forecast growth of 1.2% (see Merrill Lynch lowers global ad forecast).
The financial services firm also lowered its US advertising forecast, with a fall of 5% expected this year.
Towards the end of the month, media economist Jack Myers said that total US marketing communication budgets will decline by $56 billion between January 2008 and December 2010 – down 2.4% for 2008, -6.7% for 2009 and -2.3%.
Myers added that things are likely to get worse over the next three years – he forecast an overall decline in total marketing budgets from 2008 through to 2010 for the first time since the “Great Depression” (see US ad revenue down -6.7% in 2009).
The chief operating officer of MPG North America, Steve Lanzano, also forecast a US ad spend downturn this year, of 5% (see US ad spend expected to drop 5%).
He said that local advertising such as radio, television, newspapers and traditional billboards would suffer most as companies cut spending.
