Adspend levels in the UK will fall by 4.3% in 2009 at current prices, with the first upturn, a modest 0.3% rise year-on-year, set for Q2 2010, according to the Advertising Forecast, produced by WARC for the Advertising Association.
The report found that online is the only medium likely to grow throughout this period, at an average of 9% per quarter, while outdoor and transport will be the first form of traditional media to recover, with growth of 4.3% in Q1 2010.
At the end of last year, eMarketer cut its forecast for UK online ad spend, predicting that it would grow 7.2% in 2009, down from its May forecast of 17.2% (see UK online ad spend forecast to grow 7.2% in 2009).
WARC also found that television is set to see a steady decline in ad revenues, until registering an upturn in the third quarter of 2010.
National newspapers will be stable by Q3 2010, while regional titles and magazines are likely to record declines, although at a slower rate that than over the past 18 months.
Based on data from The Nielsen Company, WARC also forecasts that spending through the durables sector (which is dominated by motors) will decline by over 6% in 2009, returning to growth by Q2 2010.
Following a slump of 9% in 2009, the finance sector is also expected to see negligible growth in the second quarter of 2010, before posting an upturn of 4% in the third quarter, said WARC.
Retail is also set to suffer over the next 18 months, with Christmas 2009 looking particularly adverse, as spending is predicted to plummet 8% year-on-year.
The UK is also the only major global economy set to experience internet ad rate deflation in 2009, with a slide of 8.7% at current prices.
GroupM, meanwhile, has forecast that total UK advertising spend will fall by nearly 6% year on year in 2009, the worst of any developed country (see UK ad spend to fall nearly 6% in 2009).
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