Global broadband lines to reach 496m by end of 2009
Broadband information service Point Topic has increased its forecast for the number of fixed broadband lines in the world by the end of 2009 from 493 million to 496 million.
Tim Johnson, chief analyst at Point Topic, said: “A major reason for the increase has been the sustained high rate of growth in developing countries.”
He added: “China, the USA, Japan, Germany, India, France Brazil and the UK form the first eight as before, although India and Brazil have moved up the ranking while France and the UK have moved down. Russia and Mexico have replaced Italy and South Korea to take ninth and tenth places in 2013.”
China and the USA alone will account for over 270 million lines between them by 2013, almost 40% of the world’s installed base, said Point Topic. Even Mexico will have over 18 million lines, more than in France or the UK today.
A small majority of countries – 22 out of the 40 covered individually in the forecasts – saw their broadband growth rates fall below the expected trend in the second half of 2008. While some of this will be from different causes (greater availability, price cuts, changes in regulation etc.) it looks probable that the recession has played a major part, said Point Topic.
On the other hand, 14 countries are seeing growth rates higher than trend, while the remaining four stayed level. The countries which have raced ahead of Point Topic’s expectations are mostly ones which have come a little late to broadband compared with their peers and are now catching up.
Last month, research from Informa Telecoms & Media found that global fixed broadband subscriptions stood at 422 million at the end of 2008, adding nearly 68 million subscriptions in the year and 16 million in the final quarter (see Global fixed broadband subscriptions hit 422m in 2008).
Western Europe has seen broadband growth stagnate, said the research firm, as all but five of its 30 countries now exceed a household penetration level of 50% and 20 countries enjoy penetration of over 60%.
According to an Analysis Mason report, meanwhile, the mobile broadband market is set to continue its rapid growth during the next five years (see Mobile broadband market to continue its rapid growth).
The report forecast that there will be 148 million mobile broadband connections in Europe by 2014, when they will account for almost half of all broadband connections in the region.