2010 – Reasons to be cheerful… 1,2,3

In his latest monthly column Greg Grimmer, partner, Hurrell Moseley Dawson & Grimmer, looks past the pessimism of this year’s economic downturn and delivers three “good news predictions” for the coming year.

The regular reader of my monthly column may have noticed that I tend to veer towards optimism in my subject matter.  Now this might be because I started both my column and my new agency in the midst of the credit crunch and I have a bit of a blind spot when it comes to the harsh realism of today’s macro economic climate, or perhaps it is because I share with Toyota a sense of ‘kaizen’, which leads them to not have a financial year target, or even a five-year plan, but instead plan for constant change and improvement, in a hundred year plan.

Advertising and the media in general have had a tough couple of years and indeed to some the end of this difficult phase of their career, or business plan, may not yet be in sight. But, be assured it is only a part of the business cycle, which older members of the media fraternity have seen many times before.

Speaking of which, my fellow MediaTel columnist Mark Cramner took us all back to the halcyon days of the late nineties in a recent week’s piece, neatly segueing the lyrics of Manchester scallys Oasis with the convergent media scene of today. Not for the first time I shall follow his lead and take a musical reference for the subject of this month’s think piece. However, instead of choosing the pre-dot com boom years of the Gallagher brothers I have chosen the winter of discontent tune of pub rock polio patient Ian Drury as the theme for my monthly dose of carefully navigated sanguinity.

It seems apt at the year end to try and draw some conclusions from the twelve months that have just gone by, or indeed pull together some of the trends that we see appearing around us, however the largess of my journalistic fee from MediaTel’s coffers means that I am implored to go further. Predictions are the name of the game at this time of year and good news predictions are what I will deliver, albeit just the three.

So, what are these bon mots of euphoria? Well let’s start with a bit of grin and bear it, and a bit of come and share it.

1. The death of the freemium economy?

Well, death might be over doing it, but certainly the monetisation of the web is taking hold in many more sectors than we previously thought possible. The decision by the Murdoch empire to hide behind the virtual pay wall has been written about ad infinitum over the past few weeks. Most of the commentary has been nothing more than informed guesswork and if truth be told it won’t play out for months if not years.

Perhaps tellingly it has swiftly been followed by an announcement from the ‘do no evil’ Google empire that it will offer publishers the opportunity to restrict the free access of its articles. You Tube is retreating from the broadcasting of premium-produced content and returning to more classical UGC video matter, while Spotify which I have written about in this column before is successfully monetising its all access music channel.

As I have said before, the editor’s place is secure in a life where there is too little useless information. However, I find it a cruel timing that both Media Week and its talented editor Steve Barrett both find themselves on the media scrap heap as we go to HTML, joining thelondonpaper, London Lite and Sport in the free media casualties of 2009.

So whilst the death of free and the dearth of ad revenue has meant that businesses have had to look at other business models it hasn’t only been good news but I believe on balance this will be good in the longer term for both the agency and media owner sector.

2. How low can you go?

“It’s official, it’s a V”, a Credit Suisse analyst told me.  “Bathtub”, “double dip”, “w”, “u” – I become irascible hearing highly intellectual, highly qualified economists trying to predict the length and shape of the economic cycle. I prefer the analysis of the TV director I met with earlier this month who stated that her ‘going in’ plans for all of her clients for 2010 are higher than this year. Now of course some sectors will be slower than others to come out of recession and one man’s V might be another man’s U, but for those with careful budgeting 2010 will represent the chance for some form of growth if the right investment decisions are taken.

I am yet to be convinced that next year will finally be the year that mobile advertising becomes net positive, but those that invest in growth channels next year whilst managing decline of their traditional channels effectively, will without question benefit from any upturn as will their partners, suppliers and staff.

3. It’s fashionable to be poor!

Who would be a banker, the pariahs of the nation? Over the past two decades, London media folk have been expunged from their natural habitats to ever-new boroughs of the capital. West Hampstead, St Reathem’s, West Norwood (sorry, East Dulwich) have all become enclaves of young media professionals forced out by bankers bonuses.

These days we must all take heart in the fact that even with no bonus, no final salary pension, no indexed linked pay rise, we all still work in a business that is still the most fun you can have with your clothes on. An industry that still attracts multi-talented, bright young things working in a meritocracy. Enjoy it, as my favourite poster of the moment from Budweiser aptly puts it: “The Good Times they are out there”.

Or from the Blockheads: “yes, yes, dear, dear – maybe next year”.