US ad revenues to grow 1.4% in 2010
Magna’s latest US ad revenue forecast predicts 1.4% revenue growth in 2010, bouyed by the Olympics and political advertising.
Magna also forecasts that the first quarter of 2010 will be the last in which US advertising declines during this recession.
With the Olympics and political revenues taken out, US ad revenue is expected to be relatively flat at -0.1% this year, up from -14.6% in 2009.
Political advertising is estimated to account for approximately $2.7 billion in local television ad revenues in 2010, contrasting with $2.4 billion in revenues the sector generated in 2008 and 2006, and representing a 15% increase over those years.
A recent forecast from BIA/Kelsey predicted that the US television industry will see a 22.4% decline in ad revenues for 2009, leaving its total at $15.6 billion.
Olympic advertising is estimated to hit $448 million in incremental revenues this year, compared to the $650 million incremental total Magna estimates was generated during the 2006 Winter Olympics.
| 2009E | 2010E | 2011E | 2010-2015 CAGR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Direct Online (a) | $13,913.3 | $15,617.2 | $17,339.4 | 10.8% |
| -Annual Growth/Decline | 2.9% | 12.2% | 11.0% | |
| Directories (b) | $10,601.1 | $9,906.8 | $9,314.0 | -5.7% |
| -Annual Growth/Decline | -13.0% | -6.5% | -6.0% | |
| Direct Mail | $19,102.6 | $19,883.4 | $20,345.1 | 2.1% |
| -Annual Growth/Decline | -11.6% | 4.1% | 2.3% | |
| DIRECT | $43,617.0 | $45,407.4 | $46,998.5 | 4.1% |
| -Annual Growth/Decline | -7.8% | 4.1% | 3.5% | |
| National Newspapers (b) | $873.9 | $775.7 | $740.2 | -6.2% |
| -Annual Growth/Decline | -26.0% | -11.2% | -4.6% | |
| Network and Satellite Radio | $1,097.9 | $119.5 | $1,153.4 | 2.8% |
| -Annual Growth/Decline | -10.0% | 2.0% | 3.0% | |
| National/Digital/Online © | $5,551.7 | $5,772.5 | $6,242.7 | 7.8% |
| -Annual Growth/Decline | -10.3% | 4.0% | 8.1% | |
| Magazines (b) | $15,437.7 | $14,311.5 | $13,859.4 | -2.7% |
| -Annual Growth/Decline | -19.6% | -7.3% | -3.2% | |
| National Television (b)(d) | $33,267.9 | $35,336.9 | $37,057.3 | 4.1% |
| -Annual Growth/Decline | -3.6% | 6.2% | 4.9% | |
| NATIONAL | $56,229.1 | $57,316.1 | $59,053.0 | 2.8% |
| -Annual Growth/Decline | -9.7% | 1.9% | 3.0% | |
| Local Digital/Online © | $3,367.1 | $3,493.0 | $3,746.6 | 7.6% |
| -Annual Growth/Decline | -12.1% | 3.7% | 7.3% | |
| Outdoor | $5,953.6 | $5,954.7 | $6,183.5 | 4.9% |
| -Annual Growth/Decline | -14.8% | 0.0% | 3.8% | |
| Local Radio (b) | $13,086.0 | $12,758.3 | $12,629.4 | 0.4% |
| -Annual Growth/Decline | -20.9% | -2.5% | -10.0% | |
| Local TV (b)(e) | $14,484.3 | $14,344.4 | $14,488.5 | 2.3% |
| -Annual Growth/Decline | -20.2% | -1.0% | -1.0% | |
| Local Newspapers (b) | $24,442.1 | $21,818.3 | $20,731.3 | -4.0% |
| -Annual Growth/Decline | -27.2% | -10.7% | -5.0% | |
| LOCAL | $61,333.1 | $58,368.7 | $57,779.3 | 0.4% |
| -Annual Growth/Decline | -22.4% | -4.8% | -1.0% | |
| TOTAL EXCLUDING POLITICAL AND OLYMPICS | $161,179.2 | $161,092.3 | $163,830.8 | 2.3% |
| -Annual Growth/Decline | -14.6% | -0.1% | 1.7% | |
| Politcal (f) | $840.5 | $2,743.1 | $1,139.8 | – |
| Olympics (g) | $0.0 | $487.5 | $0.0 | – |
| TOTAL SUPPLIER AD REVENUES | $162,019.7 | $164,322.9 | $164,970.7 | 2.3% |
| -Annual Growth/Decline | -15.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% |