Linear TV will continue to dominate in 2010
Just 10% of television will be viewed on-demand this year as linear TV continues to dominate, according to a new forecast from Deloitte.
The accountancy and consulting firm said that most content will continue to be consumed according to broadcasters’ programming schedules, with over 90% of television and 80% of audio being consumed in this manner.
Earlier this month, Futuresource Consulting predicted that revenues from VOD movies will reach $2.4 billion in the USA and €430 million in the leading five Western European countries by 2013.
Web and television convergence is expected to increase this year, said Deloitte, although it warns against expecting a surge in internet-enabled televisions or the use of television widgets, with converged web and television consumption likely to be more pragmatic.
It expects users to combine existing sets with standalone browser-enabled devices, WiFi enabled laptops and Netbooks, smart phones, MP4 players, and portable game consoles.
Elsewhere, it predicts that continued threats by the newspaper and magazine industry to charge readers for online content is unlikely to be matched by action. It said that “publishers rumoured to be thinking about pay walls may ultimately decide against it, or are choosing hybrid models where most content is free, while charging only for a limited quantity of premium content”.
This chimes with the findings of a US poll by Harris Interactive which revealed that three-quarters of US online adults (77%) would not be willing to pay to read a newspaper online.
The poll revealed that, while some would pay, one in five online adults (19%) would only pay between $1 and $10 a month for this online content and only 5% would pay more than $10 a month.
Ed Shedd, lead media partner at Deloitte, said: “The concurrent use of the web and TV will take off in 2010. But internet-connected televisions or set top boxes won’t be driving this. Rather it will be users combining their existing televisions and laptops, MP3 players or other browser-enabled devices that will drive the convergence. Websites specifically designed to feed off viewers’ eagerness to react to what they are watching should entertain the public, please advertisers and improve broadcasters’ revenues.
“There will be ongoing challenges for the newspaper and magazine industry, which will continue to threaten to charge readers for online content – but that talk is unlikely to be matched by significant action.”