ITV1 advertising growth could hit 4.3% this year

According to a new Merrill Lynch report looking at the latest TV market estimates, ITV1 advertising growth could hit 4.3% for the full year, compared to the analyst’s own forecast of 0.8%.

ML quotes a MediaWeek report suggesting that the overall TV market is up 2.9% in the first quarter, with ITV1 up 2.7% and the entire ITV portfolio up 5.1%.

Five is believed to have lost share, with Q1 revenues estimated to be down by 4.2%, while Channel 4’s revenues are thought to be broadly flat, or up 1% for the Channel 4 portfolio.

Looking at the full year for ITV1, ML said that “while the timing of growth this year will be impacted by both sports events and the election, we believe ITV1 is at least on track to meet our FY EBIT forecasts which are 20% above the consensus”.

The financial services firm said that it has a Buy rating on ITV because it can see a 20% increase in its share price following “a stronger than expected recovery in advertising as it recovers from a low base relative to economic activity”, alongside regulatory benefits from removal of residual PSB obligations and product placement, and the “potential for management to create value through the adoption of a subscription model”.