UK media advertising to grow 3.7% this year but decline next year
Total UK media advertising will grow 3.7% to £15 billion in 2010, as TV, internet and national newspapers recover from the recession, according to a new report from Enders Analysis.
However, Enders says if UK economic growth “slows to a crawl”, UK media advertising could decline by 1.1% next year.
“2009 was a nightmare year for advertising, and 2010 a year of recovery for TV, internet, radio, national newspapers and cinema, and a slowing decline for local and regional newspapers, magazines and directories,” the report says.
“A sense of trepidation hovers over 2011, amidst early warnings of decelerating economic growth in the UK and our trading partners.”
Enders Analysis wonders if the strong recovery in the first half of this year can stretch to next year; and how much the VAT increase will see consumer spending decline.
A recent report from the Advertising Association (compiled by Warc) predicts a 5.3% increase in advertising expenditure this year and a 2% rise in 2011.
Television has put in a strong performance this year, but Enders predicts a smaller 3% to 5% year on year growth for TV next year. Cinema, meanwhile, hasn’t quite kept up with TV but is still expected to grow 2% this year, although next year could see it record a decline.
Radio has had more of a struggle this year, mainly due to the COI’s cuts. The RadioCentre forecasts growth of around 2% per quarter for the rest of the year, however, Enders forecasts little growth for the medium in 2011.
Internet, meanwhile, has had a good 2010. UK online ad spend increased 10% to nearly £2 billion in the first half of the year, according to new figures from the IAB, and it is expected to continue to grow at a decent rate in 2011 (up by around 7.4%).
Speaking about the economy at MediaTel Group’s Future of National Newspaper event last week, Claire Enders, founder of Enders Analysis, told delegates that the government is in “dreamland” if it thinks it can create two million jobs in the private sector.
“The commercial industry is struggling,” she said. “It’s a tough time. TV viewing is up and reading time is up but radio is only up slightly – they will all struggle for a while.”
For more information, see endersanalysis.com