Global tablet sales to reach 242.3 million by 2015
Global tablet sales are expected to rise to 242.3 million units in 2015, according to new research from Suppli.
Media tablet sales will reach more than 202 units in four years, up from 17.4 million in 2010, while sales of PC-type tablets will jump to 39.3 million units in 2015 from 2.3 million in 2010.
“The remarkable expansion of the tablet market from 2010 to 2015 will be driven by three successive waves of growth,” said Rhoda Alexander, director of monitor research at IHS.
“The first wave, which is hitting in 2010 and 2011, was created by the arrival of the iPad and the ensuing tsunami of demand for the device. The second wave, arriving in 2011 and 2012, will be propelled by a deluge of iPad competitors, particularly Android-based models. The third wave, which will turn up in 2013, will consist of a flood of models based on the Windows operating system that will expand the reach of tablets into traditional computer markets.”
Apple’s iPad is expected to dominate sales until 2013, when competitor products are likely to gain traction. Tablets with Android’s operating system will be Apple’s main rival, with comparable and sometimes superior features to the iPad, including in-built support for a 4G wireless communications technology (as demonstrated at the CES).
By 2013, the iPad will decline to less than 50% of overall tablet sales, according to iSuppli.
“The year 2013 will mark a critical juncture, as the tablet market turns into a battleground between media tablets using mobile operating systems, and PC-type tablets employing the Windows operating system,” Alexander added. “Add to this mix the competition from ever-improving smart phones, and the mobile device market will get very interesting.”
However, last week Business Insider said Apple “is likely to dominate the tablet industry for years to come”. By contrast, Business Insider predicts that the iPad will maintain a ‘very high’ market share – as much as 60% – for “at least several years”.
“In the long-term, we don’t think the tablet market will be as lopsided as the MP3 or PC markets, where a lone platform (iPod, Windows) annihilates everyone else. But we also don’t think it will be as evenly distributed as the smartphone market, where no single platform has more than about one third of the market.”
The article says distribution is the fundamental difference between the smartphone market and tablet market. Business Insider expects consumers to buy tablets from an electronics retailer such as Apple.com or Walmart, not a wireless carrier store. This is largely because people will not want to sign up for a two-year wireless data contract for their tablet computer, as they might for a smartphone.
It also comes down to price, according to Business Insider – “we believe Apple will continue to price the iPad aggressively so it does not lose this market to cheap, inferior competitors”. Within the next couple of years, Business Insider predicts that Apple will continue to dominate, followed by Android, with the rest of the tablet market splitting in the difference – including RIM’s PlayBook.