AA Forecasts

1991 could be the worst year for the advertising industry since the mid- seventies, according to the latest forecasts from the AA (071 931 0376). The AA figures suggest that UK ad spend is unlikely to reach 1989 levels until 1994 at the earliest. Spending on display advertising is forecast to decline by 7% in real terms, though it should start to pick up in the second half of the year, showing real growth of 3% by the fourth quarter. Classified spending is expected to be hardest hit, falling 12% over 1991, but again showing real growth of 3% in the fourth quarter. Poster advertising is the only area where 1990 expenditure levels are expected to be maintained. Service advertising is likely to be the hardest hit product sector, with a real fall of 21% against 1990. The forecasts show, however, that by 1992 all sectors will show real growth rates of between 2% to 12%.