AA’s Long Term UK Ad Forecasts Warn Against Pessimism
The media and advertising industries should not fall foul of recession-fuelled pessimism when considering the long-term revenue prospects for the sector, says the Advertising Association (AA) in a new set of growth forecasts.
In its new Long Term Advertising Expenditure Forecast report, the AA claims that it is confident that ad expenditure will recover from the current recession just as it has in every previous post-war recession. Nevertheless, the Association also says that it has “no illusions about the difficulties involved in forecasting advertising expenditure trends over a long time period.”
The report offers an optimistic and a pessimistic forecast for ad growth through to 2012, both of which expect some growth between and 2012 in revenue fixed at constant 1995 prices, as shown.
In the high option, real terms growth comes in at 45% between this year and 2012, whilst the low forecast represents 19% growth over the ten year period.
| UK Long Term Advertising Forecasts | ||||||
| High option (£m) | Low option (£m) | |||||
| Total | Display | Classified | Total | Display | Classified | |
| 2002 | 11,000 | 7,557 | 3,443 | 10,700 | 7,383 | 3,317 |
| 2012 | 15,950 | 11,165 | 4,785 | 12,750 | 9,257 | 3,494 |
| % Change | 45.0 | 47.7 | 39.0 | 19.2 | 25.4 | 5.3 |
| Source: Advertising Association, October 2002 | ||||||
Subscribers to MediaTel Insight can access this report in full, along with more national and international media analysis, forecasts and news. For subscription details please visit the site.