Advertising expenditure is forecast to increase by up to 36% in real terms over the next twelve years, according to the latest Long Term Advertising Expenditure Forecast compiled by the World Advertising Research Center (WARC) on behalf of the Advertising Association.
The forecast says that after a strong performance in 2004, and a slowing of advertising expenditure growth in the following two years as the economy cooled, a recovery is to be expected in the coming year with annual growth rates then steadily increasing and peaking in 2009.
The report says that the underlying economic forces that drive adspend are likely to continue to be positive for the foreseeable future.
The fortunes of the individual media will be shaped both by the underlying growth of advertising expenditure and by the competitive forces that affect spending in different media forms.
| High and Low Twelve Year Forecast Options (£m at constant 2000 prices) |
| Year |
High Option |
Low Option |
| |
Total |
Display |
Recruitment Classified |
Other Classified |
Total |
Display |
Recruitment Classified |
Other Classified |
| 2006 |
16,134 |
11,235 |
1,399 |
3,500 |
16,134 |
11,235 |
1,399 |
3,500 |
| 2018 |
21,944 |
15,272 |
1,154 |
5,518 |
18,555 |
13,354 |
922 |
4,278 |
| Notes: 1. Media covered by the report include television, national newspapers, regional newspapers, consumer magazines, business magazines, directories, radio, outdoor & transport, cinema, the internet and direct mail. |
| 2. Advertising expenditure data excludes production costs |
| Source: AA’s Long Term Advertising Expenditure Forecast |
According to the AA forecast, in the absence of major threats to advertising, spend is projected to rise by 36% in real terms between 2006 and 2018 on the ‘High Option’. On the ‘Low Option’ 15% growth in real terms is projected over the same time period.
At the start of the year MediaTel Insight drew together several forecasts estimating the extent of growth in the UK advertising market in 2007, with online at the forefront of many analyst’s predictions for the year ahead (see UK Advertising Growth Forecasts 2007).
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