In an advertising and marketing sector round-up, the broker says that it is continuing to monitor spending across major advertising categories and media, but claims that there is not yet enough data to draw a definite conclusion on the medium-term conditions.
“Massive uncertainty regarding the prospect of war, the financial markets, and consumer behaviour seem to have led to a state of paralysis regarding spending of any kind,” says the report.
The conditions in Europe are still very patchy, with economic indicators continuing to deteriorate. There has been a softening in the French print and television markets and retail sales are beginning to stall in the UK. In the US, network TV, TV stations, local cable and radio are all looking strong, although this is driven mostly by the November elections, says Merrill.
“The bottom line,” concludes the report, is that “it is hard to get excited about the prospects for advertising as so many companies are in a state of paralysis.”
A comparisons of some of the latest advertising forecasts is included below. Further comparisons of recent forecasts can be found Insight Analysis: Global And Regional Advertising Forecasts Comparisons.
| Advertising Forecasts Comparisons |
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
Region |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
| Merrill Lynch |
US |
0.7 |
4.0 |
– |
| |
Rest of world |
-2.5 |
2.1 |
– |
| |
Global |
-1.2 |
3.0 |
– |
| Advertising Association |
UK |
0.1 |
5.7 |
– |
| Zenith Media |
US |
-0.1 |
1.5 |
3.9 |
| |
5-country Europe |
-3.0 |
1.8 |
4.2 |
| |
7-country total |
-1.4 |
1.5 |
3.6 |
| McCann Erickson |
Global |
2.1 |
– |
– |
| |
US |
2.1 |
– |
– |
| |
Overseas |
2.1 |
– |
– |
| |
|
|
|
|
| Source: Merrill Lynch, October 2002, as above |
