Further trading information from key advertising businesses confirms that Q2 is shaping up to be very similar to Q1, that is to say relatively flat throughout, according to Merrill Lynch analysts.
As mentioned earlier this week – when the broker tweaked its US ad growth forecasts (see
Merrill Lynch Tweaks Advertising Forecasts) – the US market is still showing positive momentum, whilst Europe remains a little depressed (although no longer seems to be in decline). The second half is expected to be slightly better, but the real hopes are pinned on 2004, says Merrill.
Comments from French advertising giant, Havas, indicated a slight improvement of Q2 over Q1. However, the group now sees the overall market as flat, after previous commentary had described conditions as ‘flat to slightly up’. Merrill Lynch suggests it is closer to ‘flat to slightly down’.
Havas’ trading is currently quite weak, with H1 sales predicted to be down by 5.7% on a like-for-like basis, according to analysts.
At Aegis, trading in Europe is slightly poorer than had been expected, whilst the US has outperformed. The first half should see revenues rise by 4.4%, with a strong US mitigating a flattish European market.
Whilst overall European trading remains flat to slightly positive, the UK is stronger for Aegis, particularly in its outdoor advertising operations, which include Posterscope. France, Spain and Italy are trading below expectations, whilst Scandinavia and the Benelux countries are in line.
At Publicis the second quarter is expected to show revenues slightly better than the 1.2% decline reported in Q1 (see Publicis Sees Encouraging Signs As Q1 Improves), although growth could still be negative, says Merrill Lynch.
