An outlook for the year ahead

Less than a week before MediaTel’s much-anticipated 2011 Year Ahead event, industry body chiefs from Thinkbox, the RAB and Postar give their views and predictions for the year ahead…

Out of Home

In 2011, high impact visual branding media will be at a premium. For that reason we predict that total outdoor revenue will grow positively, by between 5% and 10%. We also expect digital outdoor to come close to 15% of total revenue as investment in new advertising structures continues at airports, malls, rail, underground & metro stations as well as at the roadside.

This year should see outdoor’s share of total advertising revenue continue to recover – especially because internet display spend has reached a plateau, and print and radio may continue to struggle.

The options for the London Olympics (which take place in Q3 2012) will be traded during quarter two of this year. This should pre-sell as much as £100 million of space, marking a particularly intense period of dealing and much excitement.

New Postar research will also be launched in 2011. This will make audience-based trading a reality and enable the measurement of multi-environment campaigns – for example, “what happens if I add some rail to my bus and roadside schedule?”

Radio

In 2011 radio listening will continue to reach record highs. As the most adaptable of media, radio will continue to feature in the myriad new devices appearing on the market – estimates suggest that around 50% of all new mobile phones are FM radio enabled and, through the multitude of radio apps available, 100% of smartphones provide access to radio content. The launch of RadioPlayer, presenting all UK commercial radio and BBC radio through a single online interface, in the early part of the year will see dramatic growth listening to radio via PC’s and other internet-enabled devices.

As IPA Touchpoints demonstrates, radio remains the most adaptable multi-tasking medium. We believe that this fact, together with new RAB research to be published in 2011, will see the advertising community increasingly appreciate the power of radio’s emotional influence at key points throughout the day. The response to the snowy conditions in December showed the bond and trust that audiences have for their favourite radio station with traffic increases to station websites of up to 5,000%.

Confident commercial radio companies will continue to grow audiences, building on the record listening levels of 2010, and steal share from the BBC. National versions of Capital and Kiss will compete with Radio 1; Heart and Smooth with Radio 2; and Classic FM will continue to trounce Radio 3. Elsewhere, Absolute will continue to innovate with brand extensions and digital platforms, local radio will continue to super serve communities (from metropolitan to rural, or based around specific musical interests), and digital stations like Heat, Jazz, Planet Rock and Fun Kids will offer advertisers passionate audiences of devotees.

At the RAB we will continue to prove effectiveness to advertisers with our award-winning RadioGauge campaign effectiveness measurement tool, set to record its 500th advertising campaign. We will also launch an online tool for customers which will allow them to tap into all of the learning from the aggregated data from RadioGauge, encompassing both effectiveness understanding and creative best practice. The spring will also see us launch new research into the emotional role that radio plays in a digital world.

Television

2011 promises to be a year when connectivity and mobility work their magic for many media. We shall stop finding it remarkable that we are listening to radio via a TV, reading a newspaper on a phone or watching TV on a tablet. This is what convergence means: the total interchangeability of content and devices. But it will still be the content that motivates people most.

For TV specifically we will see many viewers’ dearest wish granted. People really want to watch catch-up TV services on their gorgeous big TV screen whenever possible and in 2011 more opportunities to do that will appear whether via connected TV sets, connected boxes (for YouView or Sky Anytime Plus) or games consoles.

The other trend from 2010 that will continue to develop across 2011 is the TV + social media habit. Twitter say a large percentage of tweets are TV related and Facebook tell us that TV motivates a lot of activity. We would say ‘of course’ at Thinkbox; TV has always been one of the most popular topics of conversation. But there are many interesting possibilities for this partnership and for the two-screening habit. In our recent Tellyporting research, we found that people who were given smartphones that ‘talked’ to their TVs were very ready to respond directly to TV ads on their companion devices, including sticking them directly on their online shopping list. Interestingly, Tesco is already promoting a mobile app that allows people to do exactly that. We are very excited about TV ads getting ever closer to the point of sale.

One great wish for 2011 is that people stop trying to position the internet and TV as rivals – or even equivalents. The truth is they are about as complementary as it’s possible to be.

Tess Alps, chief executive, Thinkbox

Magazines

I know it sounds like a trailer for a John Peel session, but next year we’ll be hearing a lot more from The Dead Trees, The Androids, and The Tablets.

The trees will come in the shape of good old-fashioned magazine sales, which will continue to prove rumours of their death, or even steady decline, greatly exaggerated. It is now exactly ten years to the day since I first heard some overpaid overexcited “consultant” confidently predict that magazines would be officially dead ten years from now. Guess what, pal? We are still here, still growing – up 0.3% year on year, fact fans – and I’m afraid you’re not invited to this year’s PPA conference (May 4).

The Androids shall inherit the world, or the mobile sector at least, utilising consumer magazine and business media content as a key part of their offering. What Johnny Consultant never seems to realise is that media owners couldn’t care less about which groovy device we reach our customers on, we just want to be where they want to be, and if that means bringing back the carrier pigeon, albeit digitally enhanced, then so be it.

And the tablets will continue to be taken on an increasing basis, with glorious magazine content helping to drive sales of the iPad and its country cousins ever northwards. I like to read magazines on the iPad. I also like to play Angry Birds on it as well. Then I like to switch off the machine, and unwind with a balloon glass of wine and a magazine. Win, and indeed, win.

Finally, at the PPA itself, we will continue always to serve our members and to lead where appropriate, and continue to roll out our core marketing message of how magazines – head and shoulders above any other medium – really do shape and drive the consumption agenda. There’s lots more to say, but I have to dash out now to buy this fantastic pair of shoes. I’ve just seen an ad and a really good review for them in this month’s issue of GQ.

Barry McIlheney, CEO, PPA