Asia-Pacific Digital Television Forecasts From Informa Media

These figures come from a new report from Informa Media Group, produced in association the Cable & Satellite Broadcasting Association (CASBAA). It forecasts that the number of digital homes will more than quadruple by 2005 and will grow to 157 million by 2010.

By the end of 2002 there will be 489 million analogue TV households, falling to 257 million by 2010. Accordingly, the overall penetration of DTV in the Asia Pacific region will reach 28% by 2010, with the cable platform accounting for half of this.

Japan leads the way in terms of growth rate, but the sheer size of China will soon see it become the market leader, says the report. By 2010, China will contribute half the region’s digital homes; Japan will retain second place with 26 million, with India not far behind.

Digital TV Households (000)
	2001	2002	2005	2010
Australia	737	807	1,646	4,126
China	0	69	11,886	78,112
Hong Kong	30	5	205	1,164
India	0	0	3,301	22,528
Indonesia	30	31	149	430
Japan	2,770	4,032	10,164	25,514
Malaysia	740	833	1,144	2,228
New Zealand	303	409	546	933
Philippines	8	27	285	1,943
Singapore	35	49	231	736
South Korea	26	1,138	5,074	10,996
Taiwan	79	133	1,355	4,055
Thailand	255	285	399	3,445
Total	5,013	7,851	36,385	156,854
Source: Informa Media Group, December 2002

Asia-Pacific Digital TV Penetration, 2010
	Cable	Satellite	DSL Ent.	DTT	Total
Australia	11	16	10	17	54
China	12	1	1	11	25
Hong Kong	23	5	13	10	50
India	17	2	0	5	24
Indonesia	1	1	0	2	3
Japan*	31	12	9	5	57
Malaysia	2	34	4	15	55
New Zealand	6	40	10	10	65
Philippines	9	1	1	7	18
Singapore	37	0	14	15	66
South Korea	40	20	9	2	70
Taiwan	49	1	9	3	63
Thailand	0	3	1	15	19
Total	14	3	2	9	28
Source: Informa Media Group, December 2002

Subscription revenues Subscription revenues are forecast to rise dramatically, primarily due to the greater choice provided by digital transmissions. Total revenues are predicted to rise more than ten-fold between 1995 and 2010. By 2010, Japan, China, India and South Korea will account for 81% of the US$31 billion total. Japan alone will take 44% in 2010.

By 2010, cable will bring in more than two-thirds of subscription TV revenues, with DTH accounting for 19%, and DSL entertainment 12%. Most countries will more than double their subscription revenues between 2002 and 2010.

Pay-per-view (PPV) and video on-demand films (VOD) will raise ‘considerable’ revenues for digital operators, according to Informa. By 2010, the region is expected to receive US$1.9 billion from PPV and VOD, with cable contributing 57% of this total; about 57% of this total will come from Japan.

Subscription TV Revenues (US$ million)
	1995	2001	2002	2005	2010
Australia	11	516	571	833	1,742
China	504	1,634	1,750	2,171	3,299
Hong Kong	52	225	235	355	627
India	450	1,270	1,846	2,729	4,980
Indonesia	0	25	34	99	300
Japan*	1,015	5,081	5,816	8,392	13,593
Malaysia	0	127	164	238	397
New Zealand	38	136	168	214	344
Philippines	21	128	162	256	479
Singapore	1	55	67	104	165
South Korea	0	603	1,017	1,969	3,307
Taiwan	503	952	998	1,162	1,455
Thailand	21	110	119	161	278
Total	2,615	10,862	12,946	18,685	30,967
Source: Informa Media Group, December 2002

The report also shows that the region will contain 555 million television households by 2010, an increase of 116 million since 1995. Of this, 38% will subscribe to cable (analogue and digital), 3% to digital DTH packages, 2% to DSL entertainment and 9% will receive DTT signals. This leaves 47% of TV households that will only take analogue terrestrial signals.

Informa says that some governments have issued provisional dates for analogue switch-off, but most of these are considered to be too optimistic.

“The claim that Asia Pacific will have 49 million DTT homes by 2010 may appear extraordinary considering the region has very few at present. However, many governments have issued licences for DTT provision and some have also set ambitious dates for analogue switch-off. As with many of the forecasts, China is assumed to adopt DTT soon. Of the 2010 total, 35 million DTT homes are expected to be in China,” says the report.