BoAML: ITV viewing deteriorates – risk to advertising

Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BOAML) reports ITV viewing share is down and that there is a risk to advertising revenues for 2013.

The bank states that ITV1’s commercial share is down 5.8% year to date. Although digital channels are up 4.7%, the result is a 2.9% decline for the group overall. ITV1’s share of commercial impacts, which drives share deals for 2013, is down around 6%. The bank had previously forecast only a 4.5% decline.

The analyst report estimates ITV’s Q3 advertising declined by 7%. Following a positive start to October, the bank cites press reports that suggest a 5-8% decline in November and December and a 3% decline for Q4 as a whole.

The bank says that advertising forecasts are too optimistic for 2013. They estimate that the TV market would have contracted 2-3% this year rather than being broadly flat if it were not for sports events.