Broadcast mobile television users are expected to reach 124.8 million by 2010, with an inflection point predicted in 2009, as network rollout and device availability for the market reach a level of critical mass.
A new strategic report by Informa Telecoms and Media estimates that by 2010, there will be globally 18.11 million terrestrial DMB subscribers, compared with 15.02 million satellite DMB users.
Commenting on this, David McQueen, author of the Mobile TV report said: “Despite its slow start, DVB-H will become the dominant format in 2008, reaching significant levels worldwide reaching 74.03 million users by 2010, equating to almost 60% of all broadcast mobile TV users.”
The market is forecast to grow to a total of 83.5 million units in 2010, up from 0.13 million in 2005. In comparison with mobile video-capable phones, the report predicts broadcast handset sales to be outstripped by almost 5-to-1 by 2010.
Informa points out that although the mobile TV industry is beginning to generate interest from many sectors of the mobile and broadcast industries, there are still a number of issues that need to be resolved.
McQueen said: “At the heart of the mobile TV industry is the tussle between broadcast and cellular networks to find the optimum solution for all players to benefit in an extremely complex business model.”
He added: “The degree to which these networks will become either competitive or complementary will ultimately determine the fate of the market. Collaboration between players is crucial to leverage on the potential for interactive TV services.”
The success is also dependent on the availability of desirable popular content to the end user, which will depend to a large extent on how quickly consumers adopt the services and devices.
Informa’s Mobile TV report concludes that in many major global markets television is a large part of many people’s daily lives and that mobile subscriber penetration in a number of markets has reached, if not surpassed, a high saturation level.
Research published at the beginning of the year by the Mobile Data Association showed that market penetration of mobile phone ownership in the UK has exceeded 100%, with the number of mobile handsets currently in circulation greater than the UK’s population (see UK Mobile Phone Penetration Higher Than Population).
Informa predict that because of high saturation levels, the importance consumers place on television and the subsequent convergence of the broadcast and mobile industries, broadcast mobile television has undoubted potential, with interactive television and the extension of advertising at the forefront of that success.
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