BSkyB Will Lead DTV Market Until 2010, But Cable Growth Is Higher
BSkyB is expected to lead the way in terms of the number of digital television (DTV) subscriber homes until at least 2010, according to the latest forecasts from Merrill Lynch.
By 2010 cable digital TV is expected to catch up with Sky Digital’s subscriber numbers, both reaching just over seven million homes. ITV Digital (which is terrestrial) will reach about 2.7 million homes by this time, up from a predicted 1.5 million in 2002.
Cable digital’s rate of growth is slightly greater than that of Sky’s, as shown in the the larger scale graph below (without total digital homes plotted). On the basis of this cable’s customer base would be expected to exceed BSkyB’s from around 2011 onwards.
Growth rates To look at the trends another way, an annual growth rate chart is included here. From this it is clear that cable digital’s growth is expected to be significantly higher than Sky’s from around 2003.
After 2005, growth for both cable and Sky Digital begin to slow – although cable maintains a higher rate of growth at around 6.0% compared to Sky’s 1.6%.
Government analogue switch-off targets The UK Government is hoping to achieve a 95% penetration of digital television by 2010, at which point it would cease broadcasting the analogue signal. BSkyB has already switched off its analogue broadcasts.
However, the penetration of digital TV, according to Merrill Lynch, will only reach 73.8% by 2010, considerably below the Government’s target, as shown.
The complete data from which these charts were drawn can be found UK Cable, Satellite & DTT Penetration Forecasts From Merrill Lynch – February 2002.