Carat and ZenithOptimedia: UK forecasts

Two of the largest agency groups released forecasts this week, each following similar trends, although Carat predicts there will be bigger ups and downs. According to Carat, UK growth forecasts for 2012 are expected to lead the Western European region with a positive +4.0%, while ZenithOptimedia forecasts a slightly more modest +3.2% rise.

Carat expects newspapers to decline by -2.0% and magazines by -3.0% this year, while ZenithOptimedia predicts a smaller -1.6% drop for newspapers and -1.9% for magazines.

Both groups are positive about out of home, with a forecast increase from -2% last year to a healthy +6% from Carat and a +4.9% rise from ZenithOptimedia. This is in light of the heavy ad spend expected in 2012 for the Olympics.

Unsurprisingly, digital media continues to see the greatest growth – +10.5% in 2012 (Carat) and +9.3% (Zenith), with display, social media and video on demand all continuing to grow impressively at double digit rates. ZenithOptimedia expects digital’s share of ad spend in the UK to rise to over 37% by 2014.

Carat is bullish about TV, predicting steady growth of +3.0% for 2012, while ZenithOptimedia forecasts a smaller +1.0% rise. In its UK forecast, ZenithOptimedia said: “Looking ahead we feel the [TV] market will show marginal growth over 2012, but there will be stark differences between the quarters, driven by the two key events of this year: the Euro football championship and the London Olympics.”

ZenithOptimedia’s UK forecast also predicts growth for radio (+1.8%) and cinema (+2.0%).