Carat forecasts 2.9% UK adspend growth
Carat has upgraded its UK and global adspend forecasts, predicting 2.9% growth in the UK this year, up from 1.4% forecast in October, with growth of 4.2% expected in 2011.
Global advertising growth is forecast to hit 2.9% this year and 4% in 2011, said Carat, with Western Europe set for 0.6% growth this year and 2.1% in 2011.
The US is expected to stabilise at 0.2%, with China set for a rise of 16.1% and Brazil up 11.6%.
A number of events this year are expected to help boost spending, particularly the FIFA World Cup, World Expo and the Asian and Commonwealth Games.
In December, GroupM forecast global adspend growth of 0.8% in 2010.
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global | -9.0 | 2.9 | 4.0 |
| USA | -14.1 | 0.2 | 1.4 |
| Canada | -3.6 | 1.2 | 2.1 |
| Western Europe | -11.3 | 0.6 | 2.1 |
| UK | -12.0 | 2.9 | 4.2 |
| Germany | -7.4 | -2.6 | -1.2 |
| France | -6.3 | 1.7 | 2.8 |
| Italy | -13.8 | 0.2 | 1.5 |
| Spain | -24.3 | -2.0 | 1.0 |
| Nordics | -17.4 | 0.1 | 2.3 |
| C&EE | -21.3 | 3.0 | 6.5 |
| Russia | -24.5 | 1.5 | 6.9 |
| Asia Pacific | -0.5 | 6.8 | 7.2 |
| Japan | -11.8 | -3.1 | -3.1 |
| China | 12.2 | 16.1 | 16.6 |
| Australia | -5.0 | 2.3 | 3.2 |
Looking at media by sector, TV advertising is forecast to grow 6% this year and 6.1% next, with a 45.2% share of adspend. Online is set for the largest growth, up 10.1% this year and 9.1% in 2011.
Things are not so positive for newspapers, however, with Carat predicting adspend to fall 2.9% and 0.7% in 2010 and 2011 respectively. Magazines, meanwhile, will fall 3.9% this year but return to growth in 2011 at 0.8%.
Elsewhere, 2010 growth is forecast for radio (2.3%), cinema (3.6%) and outdoor (2.4%).
| 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Television | -4.8 | 6.0 | 6.1 |
| Newspapers | -14.0 | -2.9 | -0.7 |
| Magazines | -20.2 | -3.9 | 0.8 |
| Radio | -10.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| Cinema | -3.8 | 3.6 | 5.9 |
| Outdoor | -9.4 | 2.4 | 3.9 |
| Online | 0.9 | 10.1 | 9.1 |