Carat forecasts 7.1% drop in UK advertising spend this year
Carat predicts that UK adspend will fall 7.1% this year, with worldwide spend falling 5.8%.
2009 declines are led by negative growth in almost every major advertising market, with the exception of China, said Carat.
Jerry Buhlmann, CEO of Aegis Media, said: “These forecasts represent widespread adoption of a much more cautious approach to spending in the face of widespread economic uncertainty. Of course, these predictions themselves are just that: our best guess at this point in time, in a market we know to be uncertain.
“Worldwide, we estimate that 2009’s advertising spend will contract 5.8%. China aside, no major market will see growth this year. But we are seeing some signs for optimism in some countries in 2010. We believe that the UK, parts of Europe and Asia will start to stabilise.
“In an environment where clients are focusing on the value they can get from their media spend, they want proven and accountable communications. This could be one reason for the relative resilience we are seeing in TV and online.”
| Year on year % growth at current prices | |||
| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | |
| Global | 1.0 (4.9) | -5.8 (4.8) | 0.7 |
| USA | -1.8 (2.1) | -9.8 (3.1) | -2.7 |
| Canada | 2.0 (6.1) | -2.5 (7.2) | 0.7 |
| Western Europe | -2.9 (2.2) | -6.6 (2.3) | 0.1 |
| UK | -5.5 (2.5) | -7.1 (2.2) | 2 |
| Germany | 0.0 (0.3) | 2.2 (0.5) | -1.1 |
| France | -2.6 (1.7) | -5.0 (2.4) | 0.5 |
| Italy | -1.9 (2.8) | -6.5 (2.4) | 0.6 |
| Spain | -12.7 (2.3) | -16.5 (-0.8) | -4 |
| Nordics | -0.2 (4.3) | -5.6 (3.1) | -2.7 |
| Central and Eastern Europe | 12.2 (16.8) | -8.2 (15.2) | -1 |
| Russia | 16.6 (22.8) | -8.6 (19.5) | -1.5 |
| Asia-Pacific | 5.0 (8.2) | -0.8 (5.7) | 4.3 |
| Japan | -4.2 (1.5) | -5.5 (0.5) | 0 |
| China | 18.9 (18.2) | 4.6 (10.9) | 7.2 |
| Australia | 4.2 (4.2) | -1.9 (3.6) | 1.8 |
| Figures in brackets show Aegis’ previous forecasts from Aug 2008 | |||
The US and Spain have the most severe falls in growth, with forecasts predicting -9.8% and -16.5% respectively. They are also both predicted to record negative growth into 2010.
The UK, France and Italy are forecast to have single digit declines in 2009, moving back into positive territory for the following year. Japan is forecast for a -5.5% reduction in spend for 2009.
Germany and Canada seem less volatile, in relative terms, said Carat, with one or two percentage points of negative growth predicted. And with a prediction of 4.6% for 2009, China is the only major market with positive growth, albeit well below the 18.9% recorded for 2008.
The Advertising Association recently forecast that UK adspend levels will fall by 4.3% in 2009 at current prices, with the first upturn set for Q2 2010.
At the end of 2008, GroupM forecast that total UK advertising spend would fall by nearly 6% year on year in 2009, the worst of any developed country.