Carat raises 2012 UK ad spend forecasts

Commenting on the latest advertising expenditure forecasts from Carat, Jerry Buhlmann, chief executive of Aegis Group plc, remains cautiously optimistic:

“Carat’s updated global ad forecasts demonstrate that the recovery in most major advertising markets has continued in 2011 and is set to continue in 2012, against the backdrop of uncertain times. The impact of global macro-economic and political issues, combined with natural disasters, has led us to soften the full-year outlook for 2011 and 2012.”

Carat’s UK growth forecasts for this year have been revised down from +4.1% (March forecast) to +2.0% on the back of economic uncertainty – but have been increased for 2012 from +4% to +5.1% on the back of major sporting events. Both are significantly more positive than GroupM (1.5% this year and 3.3% in 2012).

The report comments:

“In the current year, like-for-like client spends have remained relatively lacklustre during the course of the year with retail (-13%) and government (-33%) spends seeing the biggest declines from January to June. By contrast automotives, telecommunications and travel/transport have performed strongly, each seeing +9% year-on-year growth in the first half.”

By media, Carat point to a slow summer for TV after a bright start; positive growth for radio and cinema but negative growth across print and out of home.

2011 forecasts by medium:

TV +1.7%.
Newspapers -3.5%
Magazines -2.8%
Out of Home -1.4%
Cinema +3.3%
Radio +2.1%

In 2012 out of home is expected to see a +5.1% increase, behind digital at +7.7%

Global Forecasts:

(All figures in brackets show previous forecasts from March 2011. The forecasts for August 2011 (and for future forecasts) include data from the Middle Eastern countries of Bahrain, Egypt, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Pan Arab, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.)