Coen Predicts ‘Modest’ Adspend Growth
The 2002 projections issued by Universal McCann this week follow the trend of recent studies predicting a limited revival in advertising market conditions. Robert Coen, director of forecasting at the global media agency, anticipates an increase of 2.1% in US adspend and there is growing confidence about prospects for next year.
The Winter Olympics and extra political advertising have apparently been responsible for driving up television revenues and the improving state of the national economy is helping to resuscitate those media which suffered in 2001. As a result, Coen is forecasting “modest but positive growth” in adspend this year.
| Outlook For 2002 – US National Advertising | ||
| % Change Over 2001 | 2002 Projections ($m) | |
| Four TV Networks | 7.0 | 15,300 |
| Spot TV | 7.5 | 9,915 |
| Cable TV | -3.5 | 11,467 |
| Syndication TV | 0.5 | 3,120 |
| Radio | 6.0 | 3,887 |
| Magazines | -1.0 | 10,984 |
| Newspapers | 2.0 | 6,747 |
| Consumer Media Sub-Total | 2.6 | 61,420 |
| Direct Mail | 2.5 | 45,870 |
| Yellow Pages | 2.0 | 2,129 |
| Internet | -5.0 | 5,464 |
| Other National Media | 1.1 | 29,677 |
| Total National | 1.9 | 144,560 |
| Source: Universal McCann, July 2002 | ||
The worldwide economic slowdown coupled with the dotcom crash and reduced spending by high-tech and financial companies impacted on most advertising markets in 2001.
Nonetheless, Coen is at pains to point out that the aggregate decline for the ten industrialized countries listed below was not as pronounced as in the US. The UK and other European powerhouses are expected to see a small recovery in 2002.
| Advertising Outlook In Key Industrialized Countries | ||
| (% change over previous year in local currency) | ||
| 2001 | 2002 | |
| Japan | -1.0 | -4.5 |
| Germany | -6.3 | -2.0 |
| UK | -6.0 | 2.0 |
| France | -1.0 | -1.0 |
| Italy | -3.1 | 1.0 |
| Spain | -6.0 | -0.3 |
| Canada | 1.0 | 2.8 |
| Mexico | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| Australia | -6.8 | -2.6 |
| Netherlands | -2.9 | 1.2 |
| Source: Universal McCann, July 2002 | ||
Universal McCann reckons that total global advertising will increase by 2.1% to $450 billion in 2002 and a further rise of 5.5% is predicted for next year.
“The year 2003 will be one in which most marketers around the world will return to more aggressive efforts to expand and grow their revenues,” said Coen. However, he does not expect ad growth to outpace nominal economic growth until 2004 when the real upturn should begin.
| Worldwide Advertising Expenditure Forecasts ($ billion) | |||
| 2002 | 2003 | Growth (%) | |
| US | 236.2 | 249.2 | 5.5 |
| Worldwide (ex US) | 214.0 | 225.8 | 5.5 |
| Total | 450.2 | 475.0 | 5.5 |
| Source: Universal McCann, July 2002 | |||