The jury is out on whether public access wi-fi is a potential moneyspinner or a lame duck technology. Things should clarify in 2004 as the infrastructure develops and market consolidation continues.
Wi-fi hardware shipments increased by almost 50% in the three months to June, evidence that WLAN solutions are finding favour in the marketplace (see
Wi-Fi Market Gathers Steam In Second Quarter).
“2003 has been a watershed year as public wireless LAN transitions from enthusiasts’ niche towards becoming a fully-fledged commercial proposition for business and consumer users,” said Richard Dineen, research director of telecoms consultancy Ovum.
However, the widespread deployment of hotspots has left some observers cold. In particular, there are doubts as to whether the business model for wi-fi is sound with ROI concerns arising from the poor scalability of existing technology and high recurring costs for backhaul.
Dineen believes that the viability of public access wi-fi will be resolved in the next year as more devices are enabled and services mature. There will also be consolidation as the number of wi-fi infrastructre vendors is reduced from 150+ in an increasingly competitive marketplace.
“In 2004, as testing and experimentation with roaming, service levels, tarif plans and payment options converge towards what one might consider ‘best practice’, we will then confidently be able to assess wi-fi’s long term commercial prospects,” said Dineen.
